Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison With Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types

AGENCY:

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of Energy.

ACTION:

Notice of data availability.

SUMMARY:

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is informing the public of its collection of shipment data and creation of spreadsheet models to provide comparisons between 2016 and 2017 unit sales and benchmark estimate unit sales of five lamp types (i.e., rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps). For 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, the 2016 and 2017 sales are not greater than 200 percent of the forecasted estimates. The 2016 and 2017 unit sales for vibration service lamps are greater than 200 percent of the benchmark unit sales estimate. The 2016 unit sales for rough service lamps are greater than 200 percent of the benchmark unit sales estimate but the 2017 unit sales are below the benchmark unit sales estimate. DOE has prepared, and is making available on its website, a spreadsheet showing the comparisons of projected sales versus 2016 and 2017 sales, as well as the model used to generate the original sales estimates. The spreadsheet is available online at: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16.

DATES:

As of July 30, 2018, the DOE has determined that no regulatory action is necessary at this time.

ADDRESSES:

The docket, which includes Federal Register notices, comments, and other supporting documents/materials, is available for review at http://www.regulations.gov. All documents in the docket are listed in the http://www.regulations.gov index. However, some documents listed in the index, such as those containing information that is exempt from public disclosure, may not be publicly available.

A link to the docket web page can be found at https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16. The docket web page contains simple instructions on how to access all documents, including public comments, in the docket.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Ms. Lucy deButts, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies, EE-5B, 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: (202) 287-1604. Email: ApplianceStandardsQuestions@ee.doe.gov.

Mr. Peter Cochran, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General Counsel, GC-33, 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: (202) 586-9496. Email: peter.cochran@hq.doe.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Table of Contents

I. Background

II. Definitions

A. Rough Service Lamps

B. Vibration Service Lamps

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps

D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps

III. Comparison Methodology

IV. Comparison Results

A. Rough Service Lamps

B. Vibration Service Lamps

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps

D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps

V. Conclusion

I. Background

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007; Pub. L. 110-140) was enacted on December 19, 2007. Among the requirements of subtitle B (Lighting Energy Efficiency) of title III of EISA 2007 were provisions directing DOE to collect, analyze, and monitor unit sales of five lamp types (i.e., rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps). In relevant part, section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 325(l) of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) by adding paragraph (4)(B), which generally directs DOE, in consultation with the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), to: (1) Collect unit sales data for each of the five lamp types for calendar years 1990 through 2006 in order to determine the historical growth rate for each lamp type; and (2) construct a model for each of the five lamp types based on coincident economic indicators that closely match the historical annual growth rates of each lamp type to provide a neutral comparison benchmark estimate of future unit sales. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(B)) Section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 also amends section 325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraph (4)(C), which, in relevant part, directs DOE to collect unit sales data for calendar years 2010 through 2025, in consultation with NEMA, for each of the five lamp types. DOE must then compare the actual lamp sales in that year with the benchmark estimate. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C)) If DOE finds that the unit sales for a given lamp type in any year between 2010 and 2025 exceed the benchmark estimate of unit sales by at least 100 percent (i.e., are greater than 200 percent of the anticipated sales), DOE must issue a finding within 90 days of the end of the analyzed calendar year that the estimate has been exceeded. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)(i)(I), (E)(i)(I), (F)(i)(I), and (H)(i)(I)).

On December 18, 2008, DOE issued a notice of data availability (NODA) for the Report on Data Collection and Estimated Future Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types (hereafter the “2008 analysis”), which was published in the Federal Register on December 24, 2008. 73 FR 79072. The 2008 analysis presented the 1990 through 2006 shipment data collected in consultation with NEMA, the spreadsheet model DOE constructed for each lamp type, and the benchmark unit sales estimates for 2010 through 2025. On April 4, 2011, DOE published a NODA in the Federal Register announcing the availability of updated spreadsheet models presenting the benchmark estimates from the 2008 analysis and the collected sales data from 2010 for the first annual comparison. 76 FR 18425. Similarly, DOE published NODAs in the Federal Register in the following five years announcing the updated spreadsheet models and sales data for the annual comparisons. 77 FR 16183 (March 20, 2012); 78 FR 15891 (March 13, 2013); 79 FR 15058 (March 18, 2014); 80 FR 13791 (March 17, 2015); 81 FR 20261 (April 7, 2016). This NODA presents the seventh comparison; specifically, section IV of this report compares the actual unit sales against benchmark unit sales estimates for 2016 and 2017.

EISA 2007 also amended section 325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraphs (4)(D) through (4)(H), which state that if DOE finds that the unit sales for a given lamp type in any year between 2010 and 2025 exceed the benchmark estimate of unit sales by at least 100 percent (i.e., are greater than 200 percent of the anticipated sales), then DOE must take regulatory action for such lamps. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D) through (H)) For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, DOE must impose a statutorily prescribed maximum-wattage level and packaging requirement. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(G)) For the other four types of lamps, the statute requires DOE to initiate an accelerated rulemaking to establish energy conservation standards. If the Secretary does not complete the accelerated rulemakings within one year from the end of the previous calendar year, EPCA specifies maximum wattage and related requirements (i.e., a “backstop requirement”) for each lamp type. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)(ii), (E)(ii), (F)(ii), and (H)(ii))

As in the 2008 analysis and previous comparisons, DOE uses manufacturer shipments as a surrogate for unit sales in this NODA because manufacturer shipment data are tracked and aggregated by the trade organization, NEMA. DOE believes that annual shipments track closely with actual unit sales of these five lamp types, as DOE presumes that retailer inventories remain constant from year to year. DOE believes this is a reasonable assumption because the markets for these five lamp types have existed for many years, thereby enabling manufacturers and retailers to establish appropriate inventory levels that reflect market demand. In addition, increasing unit sales must eventually result in increasing manufacturer shipments. This is the same methodology presented in DOE's 2008 analysis and subsequent annual comparisons, and DOE did not receive any comments challenging this assumption or the general approach.

II. Definitions

A. Rough Service Lamps

Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA by adding the definition of a “rough service lamp.” A “rough service lamp” means a lamp that—(i) has a minimum of 5 supports with filament configurations that are C-7A, C-11, C-17, and C-22 as listed in Figure 6-12 of the 9th edition of the IESNA [Illuminating Engineering Society of North America] Lighting handbook, or similar configurations where lead wires are not counted as supports; and (ii) is designated and marketed specifically for “rough service” applications, with—(I) the designation appearing on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing materials that identify the lamp as being for rough service. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(X))

As noted above, rough service incandescent lamps must have a minimum of five filament support wires (not counting the two connecting leads at the beginning and end of the filament), and must be designated and marketed for “rough service” applications. This type of incandescent lamp can be used in applications where the lamp would be subject to mechanical shock or vibration while it is operating. Other incandescent lamps have only two support wires (which also serve as conductors), one at each end of the filament coil. When operating (i.e., when the tungsten filament is glowing so hot that it emits light), rough service applications could cause an incandescent lamp's filament to break prematurely. To address this problem, lamp manufacturers developed lamp designs that incorporate additional support wires along the length of the filament to ensure that it has support not just at each end, but at several other points as well. The additional support protects the filament during operation and enables longer operating life for incandescent lamps in rough service applications.

B. Vibration Service Lamps

Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA by adding the definition of a “vibration service lamp.” A “vibration service lamp” means a lamp that—(i) has filament configurations that are C-5, C-7A, or C-9, as listed in Figure 6-12 of the 9th Edition of the IESNA Lighting Handbook or similar configurations; (ii) has a maximum wattage of 60 watts; (iii) is sold at retail in packages of 2 lamps or less; and (iv) is designated and marketed specifically for vibration service or vibration-resistant applications, with—(I) the designation appearing on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing materials that identify the lamp as being vibration service only. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(AA))

The statute mentions three examples of filament configurations for vibration service lamps in Figure 6-12 of the IESNA Lighting Handbook, one of which, C-7A, is also listed in the statutory definition of “rough service lamp.” The definition of “vibration service lamp” requires that such lamps have a maximum wattage of 60 watts and be sold at a retail level in packages of two lamps or fewer. Vibration service lamps must be designated and marketed for vibration service or vibration-resistant applications. As the name suggests, this type of incandescent lamp can be used in applications where the incandescent lamp would be subject to a continuous low level of vibration, such as in a ceiling fan light kit. In such applications, incandescent lamps without additional filament support wires may not achieve the full rated life, because the filament wire is brittle and would be subject to breakage at typical operating temperature. To address this problem, lamp manufacturers typically use a more malleable tungsten filament to avoid damage and short circuits between coils.

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps

Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA by adding the definition of a “3-way incandescent lamp.” A “3-way incandescent lamp” includes an incandescent lamp that—(i) employs 2 filaments, operated separately and in combination, to provide 3 light levels; and (ii) is designated on the lamp packaging and marketing materials as being a 3-way incandescent lamp. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(Y))

Three-way lamps are commonly found in wattage combinations such as 50, 100, and 150 watts or 30, 70, and 100 watts. These lamps use two filaments (e.g., a 30-watt and a 70-watt filament) and can be operated separately or together to produce three different lumen outputs (e.g., 305 lumens with one filament, 995 lumens with the other, or 1,300 lumens using the filaments together). When used in three-way sockets, these lamps allow users to control the light level. Three-way incandescent lamps are typically used in residential multi-purpose areas, where consumers may adjust the light level to be appropriate for the task they are performing.

D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps

The statute does not provide a definition of “2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps;” however, DOE is interpreting this term to be a general service incandescent lamp that emits light between 2,601 and 3,300 lumens. These lamps are used in general service applications when high light output is needed.

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps

Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA by adding the definition of a “shatter-resistant lamp, shatter-proof lamp, or shatter-protected lamp.” “Shatter-resistant lamp, shatter-proof lamp, and shatter-protected lamp” mean a lamp that—(i) has a coating or equivalent technology that is compliant with NSF/ANSI 51 [National Sanitation Foundation/American National Standards Institute] and is designed to contain the glass if the glass envelope of the lamp is broken; and (ii) is designated and marketed for the intended application, with—(I) the designation on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing materials that identify the lamp as being shatter-resistant, shatter-proof, or shatter-protected. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(Z)) Although the definition provides three names commonly used to refer to these lamps, DOE simply refers to them collectively as “shatter-resistant lamps.”

Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a special coating designed to prevent glass shards from being dispersed if a lamp's glass envelope breaks. Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a coating compliant with industry standard NSF/ANSI 51, “Food Equipment Materials,” and are labeled and marketed as shatter-resistant, shatter-proof, or shatter-protected. Some types of the coatings can also protect the lamp from breakage in applications subject to heat and thermal shock that may occur from water, sleet, snow, soldering, or welding.

III. Comparison Methodology

In the 2008 analysis, DOE reviewed each of the five sets of shipment data that was collected in consultation with NEMA and applied two curve fits to generate unit sales estimates for the five lamp types after calendar year 2006. One curve fit applied a linear regression to the historical data and extended that line into the future. The other curve fit applied an exponential growth function to the shipment data and projected unit sales into the future. For this calculation, linear regression treats the year as a dependent variable and shipments as the independent variable. The linear regression curve fit is modeled by minimizing the differences among the data points and the best curve-fit linear line using the least squares function. The exponential curve fit is also a regression function and uses the same least squares function to find the best fit. For some data sets, an exponential curve provides a better characterization of the historical data, and, therefore, a better projection of the future data.

For 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, DOE found that the linear regression and exponential growth curve fits produced nearly the same estimates of unit sales (i.e., the difference between the two forecasted values was less than 1 or 2 percent). However, for rough service and vibration service lamps, the linear regression curve fit projected lamp unit sales would decline to zero for both lamp types by 2018. In contrast, the exponential growth curve fit projected a more gradual decline in unit sales, such that lamps would still be sold beyond 2018, and it was, therefore, considered the more realistic forecast. While DOE was satisfied that either the linear regression or exponential growth spreadsheet model generated a reasonable benchmark unit sales estimate for 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, DOE selected the exponential growth curve fit for these lamp types for consistency with the selection made for rough service and vibration service lamps. DOE examines the benchmark unit sales estimates and actual sales for each of the five lamp types in the following section and also makes the comparisons available in a spreadsheet online: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16.

IV. Comparison Results

A. Rough Service Lamps

On October 18, 2016, DOE published a notice announcing that the actual unit sales for rough service lamps were 219.7 percent of the benchmark estimate for the 2015 calendar year. 81 FR 71794, 71800. For the 2016 and 2017 calendar years, the exponential growth forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for rough service lamps to be 4,722,000 and 4,489,000 units respectively. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 9,674,000 units in 2016 and 5,860,000 units in 2017. These findings are 204.9 and 130.5 percent of the benchmark estimate.

Since unit sales for rough service lamps exceeded 200 percent of the benchmark estimate in 2015, and DOE did not complete an energy conservation standards rulemaking for these lamps by the end of calendar year 2016, the backstop requirement was triggered. DOE published a final rule on December 26, 2017, to adopt the statutory backstop requirements for rough service lamps which require that rough service lamps: (I) Have a shatter-proof coating or equivalent technology that is compliant with NSF/ANSI 51 and is designed to contain the glass if the glass envelope of the lamp is broken and to provide effective containment over the life of the lamp; (II) have a maximum 40-watt limitation; and (III) be sold at retail only in a package containing 1 lamp. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)(ii)) DOE will continue to collect and model data for rough service lamps for two years after the effective date of January 25, 2018, in accordance with 42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(I)(ii).

B. Vibration Service Lamps

On April 7, 2016, DOE published a notice announcing that the actual unit sales for vibration service lamps were 272.5 percent of the benchmark estimate for the 2015 calendar year. 81 FR 20261. For the 2016 and 2017 calendar years, the exponential growth forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for vibration service lamps to be 2,467,000 and 2,345,000 units respectively. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 6,869,000 units in 2016 and 6,018,000 units in 2017. These findings are 278.5 and 256.6 percent of the benchmark estimate.

Similar to rough service lamps, since unit sales for vibration service lamps exceeded 200 percent of the benchmark estimate in 2015, and DOE did not complete an energy conservation standards rulemaking for these lamps by the end of calendar year 2016, the backstop requirement was triggered. DOE published a final rule on December 26, 2017 to adopt the statutory backstop requirements for vibration service lamps which require that vibration service lamps: (I) Have a maximum 40-watt limitation; and (II) be sold at retail only in a package containing 1 lamp. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(E)(ii)) DOE will continue to collect and model data for vibration service lamps for two years after the effective date of January 25, 2018, in accordance with 42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(I)(ii).

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps

For 3-way incandescent lamps, the exponential growth forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2016 to be 48,104,000 units and for 2017 to be 47,610,000 units. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 31,768,000 units in 2016 and 28,468,000 units in 2017. As these findings are only 66 percent and 60 percent of the benchmark estimate respectively, DOE will continue to track 3-way incandescent lamp sales data and will not initiate an accelerated standards rulemaking for this lamp type at this time.

D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps

For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, the exponential growth forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2016 to be 34,241,000 units and for 2017 to be 34,307,000 units. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 3,679,000 units in 2016 and 2,794,000 units in 2017. As these findings are 10.7 and 8.1 percent of the benchmark estimate respectively, DOE will continue to track 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamp sales data and will not impose statutory requirements for this lamp type at this time.

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps

For shatter-resistant lamps, the exponential growth forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2016 to be 1,679,000 units and for 2017 to be 1,684,000 units. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 548,000 units in 2016 and 474,000 units in 2017. As these findings are only 32.6 and 28.2 percent of the benchmark estimate respectively, DOE will continue to track shatter-resistant lamp sales data and will not initiate an accelerated standards rulemaking for this lamp type at this time.

V. Conclusion

This NODA compares the 2016 and 2017 shipments against benchmark unit sales estimates for rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps. For 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, the 2016 and 2017 sales are not greater than 200 percent of the forecasted estimates. The 2016 and 2017 unit sales for vibration service lamps are greater than 200 percent of the benchmark unit sales estimate. The 2016 unit sales for rough service lamps are greater than 200 percent of the benchmark unit sales estimate but the 2017 unit sales are below the benchmark unit sales estimate. DOE will continue to monitor these lamp types and will assess 2018 unit sales next year.