170 Ind. Admin. Code 4-7-5

Current through December 4, 2024

Section 170 IAC 4-7-5 - Energy and demand forecasts

Authority: IC 8-1-1-3; IC 8-1-8.5-3

Affected: IC 8-1-8.5; IC 8-1.5

Sec. 5.

(a) The analysis of historical and forecasted levels of peak demand and energy usage must include the following:

(1) Historical load shapes, including the following:

(A) Annual load shapes.

(B) Seasonal load shapes.

(C) Monthly load shapes.

(D) Selected weekly load shapes.

(E) Selected daily load shapes, which shall include summer and winter peak days, and a typical weekday and weekend day.

(2) Disaggregation of historical data and forecasts by:

(A) customer class;

(B) interruptible load; and

(C) end-use; where information permits.

(3) Actual and weather normalized energy and demand levels.

(4) A discussion of methods and processes used to weather normalize.

(5) A minimum twenty (20) year period for peak demand and energy usage forecasts.

(6) An evaluation of the performance of peak demand and energy usage for the previous ten (10) years, including the following:

(A) Total system.

(B) Customer classes or rate classes, or both.

(C) Firm wholesale power sales.

(7) A discussion of how the impact of historical DSM programs is reflected in or otherwise treated in the load forecast.

(8) Justification for the selected forecasting methodology.

(9) A discussion of the potential changes under consideration to improve the credibility of the forecasted demand by improving the data quality, tools, and analysis.

(10) For purposes of subdivisions (1) and (2), a utility may use utility specific data or data such as described in section 4(14) of this rule.

(b) To establish plausible risk boundaries, the utility shall provide at least three (3) alternative forecasts of peak demand and energy usage including:

(1) high;

(2) low; and

(3) most probable; peak demand and energy use forecasts.

(c) In determining the peak demand and energy usage forecast that is deemed by the utility, with stakeholder input, to be most probable, the utility shall consider alternative assumptions such as:

(1) Rate of change in population.

(2) Economic activity.

(3) Fuel prices.

(4) Price elasticity.

(5) Penetration of new technology.

(6) Demographic changes in population.

(7) Customer usage.

(8) Changes in technology.

(9) Behavioral factors affecting customer consumption.

(10) State and federal energy policies.

(11) State and federal environmental policies.

170 IAC 4-7-5

Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission; 170 IAC 4-7-5; filed Aug 31, 1995, 9:00 a.m.: 19 IR 21; readopted filed Jul 11, 2001, 4:30 p.m.: 24 IR 4233; readopted filed Apr 24, 2007, 8:21 a.m.: 20070509-IR-170070147RFA; readopted filed Aug 2, 2013, 2:16 p.m.: 20130828-IR-170130227RFA

Filed 12/5/2018, 11:49 a.m.: 20190102-IR-170180127FRA

Readopted filed 4/11/2019, 9:04 a.m.: 20190508-IR-170190136RFA