Section 250.414 - What must my drilling prognosis include?Your drilling prognosis must include a brief description of the procedures you will follow in drilling the well. This prognosis includes but is not limited to the following:
(a) Projected plans for coring at specified depths;(b) Projected plans for logging;(c) Planned safe drilling margin that is between the estimated pore pressure and the lesser of estimated fracture gradients or casing shoe pressure integrity test and that is based on a risk assessment consistent with expected well conditions and operations. (1) Your safe drilling margin must also include use of equivalent downhole mud weight that is: (i) Greater than the estimated pore pressure; and(ii) Except as provided in paragraph (c)(2) of this section, a minimum of 0.5 pound per gallon below the lower of the casing shoe pressure integrity test or the lowest estimated fracture gradient.(2) In lieu of meeting the criteria in paragraph (c)(1)(ii) of this section, you may use an equivalent downhole mud weight as specified in your APD, provided that you submit adequate documentation (such as risk modeling data, off-set well data, analog data, seismic data) to justify the alternative equivalent downhole mud weight. You may submit such justification in advance of your full APD, and BSEE may consider such justification for approval when submitted. Any such approval will be contingent upon your confirmation in the APD that your plans and the information underlying your approved justification have not changed.(3) When determining the pore pressure and lowest estimated fracture gradient for a specific interval, you must consider related off-set and analogous well behavior observations, if available.(d) Estimated depths to the top of significant marker formations;(e) Estimated depths to significant porous and permeable zones containing fresh water, oil, gas, or abnormally pressured formation fluids;(f) Estimated depths to major faults;(g) Estimated depths of permafrost, if applicable;(h) A list and description of all requests for using alternate procedures or departures from the requirements of this subpart in one place in the APD. You must explain how the alternate procedures afford an equal or greater degree of protection, safety, or performance, or why the departures are requested;(i) Projected plans for well testing (refer to § 250.460 );(j) The type of wellhead system and liner hanger system to be installed and a descriptive schematic, which includes but is not limited to pressure ratings, dimensions, valves, load shoulders, and locking mechanisms, if applicable; and(k) Any additional information required by the District Manager needed to clarify or evaluate your drilling prognosis.76 FR 64462, Oct. 18, 2011, as amended at 81 FR 26017, Apr. 29, 2016; 84 FR 21973, May 15, 2019